We analysed 300+ sharp signals: does edge or CLV actually predict profit?

Every value service waves a big "edge %" at you. Fair question, then: does a bigger edge actually make you more money? We ran our own public record through the grinder — and no, the headline edge isn't the answer.

SharpROI · Data study · 11 June 2026 · ~8 min read

"Edge" is the number everyone shows you — how far your price beats the sharp fair value at the moment you bet. Feels like the whole story. Bigger edge, bigger profit, right? We'd never actually checked. So we took our own signals and asked one question: across hundreds of settled bets, what actually correlates with ROI — the edge, or the closing line value?

The data

303 settled signals from our public track record, each carrying a recorded edge and a finalised CLV (closing line value). Flat 1-unit staking, half-win / half-loss handled properly. We then sliced the sample by edge band, by CLV band and by signal timing. (New to CLV? Read our plain-English CLV guide first and come back.)

One baseline before anything else. Betting every signal flat returned roughly +5% ROI — a real, positive edge all on its own. So edge isn't worthless. It's the trigger that finds the bet in the first place. The question is whether reading it together with CLV gets you somewhere better.

Finding 1 — CLV is the real predictor

Split the sample on nothing but CLV and look at the gap:

Beat the closing line, comfortably profitable. Miss it, and you hovered somewhere between break-even and losing. No shock if you know the theory — the close is the market's most accurate price, so beating it means you were standing on the right side of the number.

Finding 2 — a bigger edge did NOT mean more profit

Now the surprise. Same sample, split on the edge number instead:

Read that again — the lower-edge half made more money. Why? Because a huge stated edge is often inflated or stale, a price gap the market promptly corrects. A small edge the sharp market confirms by moving your way is worth far more than a flashy big edge that fades on contact. The edge is the alarm. It's not the verdict.

Finding 3 — the best combination: small edge + strong CLV

Now cross the two against each other. Each cell shows ROI (with sample size):

Finding 4 — when you bet matters as much as what

Timing turned out to be the cleanest signal in the whole study. Group the bets by how long before kickoff they were sent:

Monotonic and brutal. Early bets won, late bets lost. By the final half-hour the market has usually sharpened and the value's gone — late entries actually gave back CLV. You want to be in before the line corrects, not after it already has.

What it all means — and how we use it

Stack the rules and you get a clean ladder of ROI on the same sample:

Edge keeps its job — it surfaces the bet, and on its own it's already profitable. But CLV is the truth. Read the two together. Lean on the bets the sharp market confirms, get in early, and skip the big-edge-but-the-line-moved-against-you traps. That's the gap between a respectable +5% and something a lot better.